Reflexions

The One Percent Solution

The Pew Center's new report, One in 100: Behind Bars in America 2008, is a humiliating admission of our failure as a society. The greatest nation on earth incarcerates 2.3 million adults in jails and prisons—more than 1% of its population? What does that say about our vaunted American values, social fabric, educational system and economic opportunities?

One way to look at "1 in 100" is that 1 out of 100 Americans reach adulthood without having learned what it takes to get along in the modern world. Another way to look at this is that we have a society that doesn't know what to do with one out of every hundred adult citizens. This is not to say that convicts are innocent victims of society, but surely such a high percentage—counted domestically or globally—is a strong signal that something isn't working. It says something more than "We're tough on crime."

The number of Americans incarcerated is both a higher total and a higher ratio than any other nation. The People's Republic of China, which was runner-up, imprisons few people overall, despite more than four times the population. By comparison, the 26 European nations with the largest prison populations have only 1,842,115 inmates combined, or 2.3% of the 802.4 million people. Americans are incarcerated at eight times the rate as Germans.

While keeping repeat offenders off the streets may make this country feel safer, there is no evidence that locking away first-time convicts yields a benefit in public security that is worth the staggering $54 billion economic cost, compared to diversion alternatives that are less expensive and equally effective. For example, Florida's prison population almost doubled between 1993 and 2007. Its crime rate dropped, but New York's crime rate dropped as much and its prison population is actually a little less than it was in 1993.

It's a bad investment as well as bad policy. One percent of Americans in prison (one out of nine black Americans between 20-34) is also 1% not contributing to society: not working, not paying restitution, not paying child support, not paying taxes -- 1% on top of the existing unemployment rate. Oregon, for example, spends about 11% of its general fund on corrections—a state's discretionary budget that would otherwise be available for other uses, such as transportation, healthcare, public safely and education. Between 1987 and 2007, inflation adjusted general fund spending on corrections by all 50 states increased an average of 127%, while spending on education rose only by 21%.

Maybe one reason is that five US states spend as much or more on corrections as they do on education. Averaged over all 50, they spend 60 cents on incarceration for every dollar they spend on schooling. But if our schools aren't equipping 2.3 million Americans with the life skills they need to stay out of prison, prison certainly doesn't teach those skills either. You might say from this study that schools have 1% failure rate. But in terms of rehabilitating offenders, about 50% of parolees are subsequently convicted of committing crimes.

The Britney Industrial Complex

It isn't running guns or dealing drugs, but surely there's a better way to make a living. Apparently the trials and tribulations that keep Britney Spears in the news are worth as much as $120 million to the US economy. This is according to an estimate by Portfolio magazine, which does not include any money that changes hands when she's actually singing. Putting her face on the cover of a tabloid, for example, can boost sales by a third—gossip alone accounts for about $75 million a year for TV, print and Internet outlets.

Britney Spears' life looks like a train wreck. To the Britney Industrial Complex, comprising everyone from paparazzi to perfume vendors, she is a gold mine. Whether she's shaving her head or battling for custody of her children, Britney seems to grow more fascinating (and to some people, more lucrative) every time she stumbles.

Multiply that by all the other troubled entertainers obsessing the world and you have a segment of GDP worth about as much as Washington's proposed tax rebates. Maybe George and Laura would do the country more good if they just let the twins run wild.

See "The Britney Economy" by Duff McDonald in Portfolio's February 2008 issue. Image from Wikimedia Commons.

Let Tim Rutten host the next debate

Los Angeles Times media critic Tim Rutten is on fire lately. He has been a relentless—and no doubt lonely—proponent of critical thinking during this insane election season. Last week, in a column called "CNN: Corrupt News Network," he seemed to the only one noticing how the Republican presidential debate was severely skewed towards the network's own ratings strategy of starting a new Spanish (speaking)-American War at the expense of the public interest.

The United States is at war in the Middle East and Central Asia, the economy is writhing like a snake with a broken back, oil prices are relentlessly climbing toward $100 a barrel and an increasing number of Americans just can't afford to be sick with anything that won't be treated with aspirin and bed rest. So, when CNN brought the Republican presidential candidates together this week for what is loosely termed a "debate," what did the country get but a discussion of immigration, Biblical inerrancy and the propriety of flying the Confederate flag?

Chinese endorse a GOP ticket

An NPR Day-to-Day conversation with Juan Williams relayed an interesting comment on American politics from a Chinese foreign policy expert. Despite chest-thumping moves such as the last minute denial of shore privileges for the US Navy, Williams says the Chinese would love nothing better than another US president in the mould of George Bush.

"In the course of the conversation, he said that there was worry in China about the likely victory of a Democratic because a Democrat would likely focus on things like human rights, democratic reform in China, environmental problems in China, trade deficits with China," Williams explains. "They like the idea of George W. Bush as president because they feel he doesn't pay as much attention to those … issues."

Are you registered to vote in NC?

North Carolina Congressman Patrick McHenry objected to a million-dollar plan in the House energy bill (HR 2776) that democrats passed Saturday to promote bicycling as a means of energy conservation, including a $20/mo tax break for bike commuters

McHenry (seen here shoveling some), told his fellow Reps: Some might argue that depending on bicycles to solve our energy crisis is naive, perhaps ridiculous. Some might even say Congress should use this energy legislation to create new energy, bring new nuclear power plants on line, use clean coal technology, energy exploration, but no, no. They want to tell the American people, stop driving, ride a bike. This is absolutely amazing... Stay tuned for the next big idea for the Democrats: Improving energy efficiency by the horse and buggy.

McHenry might be interested to know that, according to surveys, 40-60% of Americans would walk or bike to work and errands if they could. Let say that just 10% of Americans rode two miles a day, instead of driving. Besides getting a little exercise, those 30 million people would be saving (assuming the US average of 21mpg) about 2.85 million gallons of gasoline per day (out of an average of 400 million gallons consumed every day.), or saving almost $3 billion per year (at the current average of $2.75/gal).

Meanwhile, McHenry is pushing a $129,000 earmark for the "Home of the Perfect Christmas Tree."

McHenry was so proud of his HR 2776 performance on Capitol Hill that posted himself.

Via The Goat

Facebook really gets in your face

I guess I wasn't feeling very social this morning when I logged into my social networking software (I've asked before what introverts are supposed to make of this new world). I signed up for Facebook a few weeks ago because it's the SN app being used in advance of the Office 2.0 Conference I'm speaking at next week. This morning I was delighted to see an invitation from a colleague who I know through KM conferences, but haven't talked to in a while. Naturally, I click "Accept."

Then right off, Facebook wants to know if I slept with her? Excuse me?

Your Tax Dollars at Work (Cont'd)

According to the Associated Press, it took the federal government 10 years to grok that twin sisters Charlene and Darlene were bilking the Defense Dept. out of $20 million for hardware that troops could have purchased in local shops in Baghdad and Kabul. Apparently, no one at the Pentagon noticed an automated payment system was approving $998,798 for two 19-cent lock washers, $492,097 for an $11 threaded plug and $499,569 to send 10 cotter pins worth $1.99 each. (This article notes, however, that most of the cost was actually shipping and handling.)

SC contractor pleads guilty to defrauding Defense Department

The Liberation of Paris Hilton

What do you think, heiress fans: is LA County the new Vichy government?

Let's see what this experiment does for my Technorati stats to blog about Paris Hilton, entrepreneurial socialite, accidental pron star and all-round secret weapon of mass distraction.

My stays at the Conrad in Bangkok have made me a HiltonHonors Diamond member. I wonder if I get bonus points for this post?

The first climate refugees in the US

In the town of Newtok, Alaska, descendents of the earliest Americans are about to become homeless. They were previously convinced by the government of the folly of their formerly nomadic ways. Thanks to global warming, the permafrost is melting and their town is sinking into fetid mud. This New York Times article discusses the plight of “the first climate refugees in the United States.”

Studies say Newtok could be washed away within a decade. Along with the villages of Shishmaref and Kivalina farther to the north, it has been the hardest hit of about 180 Alaska villages that suffer some degree of erosion.

Some villages plan to hunker down behind sea walls built or planned by the Army Corps of Engineers, at least for now. Others, like Newtok, have no choice but to abandon their patch of tundra. The corps has estimated that to move Newtok could cost $130 million because of its remoteness, climate and topography. That comes to almost $413,000 for each of the 315 residents.

Not that anyone is offering to pay.

Global warming

Of Babies and Bathwater at Circuit City

I wanted to write something about the inanity of the layoffs at Circuit City, but I just couldn't add anything about the arrogance of the company's executives that they didn't demonstrate better themselves--or than what was confirmed by the continuing decline of their share prices since their move. I'll never shop there again.

From: “It’s the Workforce, Stupid” by James Surowiecki. New Yorker April 30, 2007

In the nineteen-nineties… a new term appeared: the “seven-per-cent rule.” …when a company announces major layoffs, its stock price jumps seven per cent… Many academics have looked at how layoffs affect stock prices, and they’ve found that the seven-per-cent rule is bunk. Instead of rising sharply, the stock of companies that trim their workforces is likely to fall…

Why Teachers Quit

A depressing report by Howard Blume in Today's LA Times. Teacher turnover in California schools is alarmingly high. But empowerment and working conditions seem to be as important factors--or more--than salary levels. These categories probably have analogs in other professions, too.

10 Reason Teachers Quit
Contributing factors cited:
Bureaucratic interference	57%
Poor support from district	52%
Low staff morale	45%
Lack of resources	42%
Unsupportive principal	42%
Poor compensation	41%
Too little decision-making authority	40%
Too little time for planning	36%
Accountability pressures	35%
Lack of teamwork	35%

Source: Calif. State University/Los Angeles Times

Words that Work Evil

Words don't kill people; people who twist the words to hide the reality kill people

Today on Fresh Air, Frank Luntz Explains 'Words That Work' to Terry Gross. Gaming instead of gambling, exploring instead of drilling. My favorite line is his characterization of the word "Orwellian" as a condition of "linguistic clarity" rather than manipulative political double-speak.

Learning from the Poor

"A grassroots approach to emerging-market consumers" is a very interesting article from the new issue of the McKinsey Quartlerly. It talks about the corporate benefits to the private sector when they get involved in microfinance and other grassroots efforts.

When companies figure out how to serve low-income consumers in developing countries profitably, everyone wins: the disadvantaged gain access to products and services that the private sector is best positioned to deliver, while companies tap into vast new markets. On top of that, when core sectors of the economy—such as banking, electricity, telecommunications, and water—thrive, they transform consumers into producers and promote economic development.

But what I thought was especially interesting was the way that these macro companies are learning new market strategies by paying attention to the dynamics of microfinance. They are using mechanisms such as the peer pressure of group lending to resolve payment issues regarding public services and even public safely.

Jaw Dropping Name Dropping

I'm on my way back from the Global Microcredit Summit and the UN Advisors Group on Inclusive Financial Access, both of which met in Halifax, Nova Scotia. I don't like to drop names (ie, I didn't mention dining in SF last week next to Mayor Gavin Newsom and Mick Jagger). But microfinance is where it's at right now. And it was amazing to see a who's who of grassroots economic development. I was standing in line at a reception hosted by the foreign minister of Andorra honoring this year's Nobel peace prize winner, Dr. Muhammad Yunus, when it dawned on me that the woman patiently queuing behind me was the queen of Spain...

Save America from a Dangerous Invasion: Deport Lou Dobbs

"I had a sacred trust there, and I let it go.” — Ted Turner, founder of CNN

Media critic Tim Rutten has a great piece in today’s Los Angeles Times: “Bile across the border”

“It’s been a while since a major American news organization treated an important national issue as irresponsibly as CNN now does immigration,” Rutten writes.

Every night when the sun goes down, Lou Dobbs’ apoplectic rants against free trade, foreign investment, outsourcing, immigration and public displays of ethnicity are an embarrassment to journalism and a dangerous distraction from the real issues that need to be addressed.

Your Tax Dollars at Work (cont'd)

An Afghani man is potentially facing execution in Kabul if convicted of converting to Christianity. Abdul Rahman, 41, converted 16 years ago while working with an aid organization helping refugees in Pakistan. Based on accusations made by family members, with whom he is in a custody dispute over his two children, he was arrested last month. With a bible in his posession, he was charged with rejecting Islam. Four years after the Taleban were replaced by the US-backed government--with a constitution is based on Sharia law--the defendant faces a death sentence. President Hamid Karzai has said he will not intervene. The judge has offered to forgive Rahman if he recants his conversion "because the religion of Islam is one of tolerance." Via Associated Press and BBC Online (

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/4823874.stm)

Calculating the Real Cost of Gas

“Socialism collapsed because it did not allow the market to tell the economic truth. Capitalism may collapse because it does not allow the market to tell the ecological truth.”

--Øystein Dahle, former VP, Exxon

Øystein is quoted in Lester Brown's new book, Plan B 2.0: Rescuing a Planet Under Stress and a Civilization in Trouble (W.W. Norton & Co., 2006). The book is available online in pdf chapters at www.earth-policy.org.

David Barth’s “Hard Right” Reviewed in Variety

David Barth’s off-Broadway production of “Hard Right” is reviewed by Mark Blankenship in Tomorrow’s Daily Variety.

Here's proof that "Hard Right," a vicious political drama from David Barth, scrapes some kind of nerve: At the performance reviewed, patrons started yelling at each other across the aisles during the play. "How can you laugh at this? It's not funny!" said one man, reacting to the crowd's titters as a mysterious government agent terrorized a suburban family. But the laughs kept coming, especially when the agent offered absurd rationales for his behavior. "How can you laugh?" the man repeated, until someone retorted, "Don't tell me what to think!"

Blankenship compares the production to certain Pinter plays "in which terror springs from chatty rogues with unclear motives," he writes. "But though it traffics mainly in dread, the production's tone is expertly controlled."

"Hard Right" continues through the month at the Player's Theater.

Brazilians fear US plotting to take Amazon

Spotted this last week in the LA Times. Three-quarters of Brazilians expect a foreign invasion to seize the Amazon.

It's laughable at first. But after that, it's a chilling lesson in how perception is more important than reality. And how badly perceptions of US intentions have gone downhill.

"Catapult the Propaganda"

"See, in my line of work you got to keep repeating things over and over and over again for the truth to sink in, to kind of catapult the propaganda. (Applause.)"
"President Participates in Social Security Conversation in New York"
Greece Athena Middle and High School, May 24, 2005
Text via www.whitehouse.gov